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Beware the Ides of March

3K views 42 replies 17 participants last post by  AmmoSgt In Memoriam 
#1 ·
March 15,2017 is in 13 days. We have had an unlimited debt ceiling since 2015 due to Boehner/ Obama deal .. but the deal also declared that on that date hard debt ceiling of 20 Trillion dollars will be imposed.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-26/stockman-after-march-15-everything-will-grind-halt

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

When that debt clock hit's 20 Trillion the government cannot spend a single penny more than what comes in thru taxes . not military or government pay, not social security, not for fuel for the navy or air force or ammo, no tax cuts , without legislation to raise the debt ceiling. there is a small cushion... pay out will be prioritized, and tax revenue will be coming in.. tax refunds may be delayed.

They estimate they will completely run out between midsummer and sept ... there will be no funds for repeal and replace, Medicare, infrastructure , the wall, deportation, holding Federal prisoners in jail or their guards paychecks or their court cases or military expansion

a possible alternative Trump has proposed is defaulting on the debt, under a variety of alternative names

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...-look-donald-trumps-comments-about-refinanci/

http://www.npr.org/2016/05/09/47735...deas-for-handling-the-national-debt-explained

just saying, either way crashing the stock and bond market will be among the lesser consequences .. a total freeze on borrowing .. even short term to make payroll, could be part of the consequences and adjustable interest rates , which includes most credit cards and some car loans will reset higher .

might want to take appropriate action if you can .. I have been positioning myself for this for over a year now..

good luck
 
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#2 ·
Very Interesting. Let's see if Congress does something positive when their own paychecks are in jeopardy. Might be time to take profit out of the market and maybe buy some stocks again when the prices drop. There will be a correction in the market. There's always a correction.
 
#3 ·
Let's see if Congress does something positive when their own paychecks are in jeopardy.
You can bet your "bottom dollar" that the "congress" has already exempted themselves from any and all cost cutting measures...
 
#7 ·
#8 ·
Me, I'm going to give a promotion to all my rat catchers in a SHTF situaton..rat stew anyone?
 
#13 · (Edited)
DK, don't know what to tell you. On the 15th of March , 9 days , a hard cap 20 Trillion dollar limit on the National debt goes into effect. Currently we are at http://www.usdebtclock.org/ current we are at 19.964 trillion.. or about 36 Billion wiggle room. They say we can squeak by on around 75 billion month .. so crunch can come in as little as two weeks ... But it is tax season and folks are filing and paying taxes .. at least personal income taxes. Personal income taxes are about half of all the money the Government collects and payroll taxes are about a third .. corporate and all other taxes make up the rest. . So, over the next couple months the Government should have a higher than average monthly collections ... they say they think they might be able to stretch things out to maybe late august early sept by using accounting tricks and only paying some bills and not others .. but at some point between and late august the well runs dry .. no more money printing no more treasury bills or Savings bonds .. no more borrowing of any kind until the debt limit is raised.

They will have to raise the limit at some point.. we don't bring in as much as we spend. Democrats in their obstinate cussedness may not support raising the debt ceiling, Republicans usually are against it if they are sure they will lose the vote... but it is Trump and the Republicans that have all the big plans this time , military expansion, infrastructure, the wall , the deportations .. don't have any idea what the bill for those will look like, they also want to cut taxes. They have made a lot of expensive promises.

It looks like the biggest budget fight , possibly in History. Is Trump the big deal maker or somebody that is just pissing off his opponents and making them dig in? Some of what he wants to do is very unpopular on the left, and compromises will have to be made.. will either side , as an example , be willing to swap the wall and deportations for military build up and the Infrastructure thing, which both sides say they want, is not the same thing as seen from either side http://thehill.com/policy/transport...ic-and-gop-platforms-differ-on-infrastructure

Long story short... how fast do you think they can come up with how much to raise the debt ceiling and factor in which new projects and how much "tax reform" to budget for ? Most of the bills for the new stuff are not even in final form yet or have even started thru the legislative process... In other words they have to fight over what they are going to fight about before they will even know how much money and for what they are going to have to fight about so they know how much they want to borrow to raise the debt ceiling...
I could be wrong, it could happen fast, they could just say tohellwithit and suspend the debt ceiling for another couple years .. or they could fight it down to the last nickel ...

Will the traditional Republicans side with the Trumpsters ... it only takes a couple of Republican budget hawks to shut it all down, or a few bleeding heart liberals who want to make sure folks get their bennie checks on time to tip it one way or the other .

If everybody starts pulling their money out of banks and starts a run on the banks it could add complications nationally .. but if they don't there will not be enough money in FICA to cover everything if there is a nation wide bank run .. it is just like if folks decided to pull their money out of the stock market because they think the stock market might crash, will for sure cause the market to crash or if they dump their bonds because they think Trump wants to renegotiate the debt will crash the bond market.

Don't know what the right thing to do it is.. the safest short term is suspend the debt ceiling , kick the can down the road and keep printing money .. but that will just make the next time even more dangerous.. and at some point, (we may already be there) we will hit a level of debt that will completely destroy us and our entire economic system and the dollar itself and we will launch into hyperinflation .. I'm betting we will destroy ourselves sooner rather than later , and that is why I have gold and silver.

Both sides are going to have to give up on funding some or all of their pet projects and raise taxes to just pay for what we already spend... and how likely is that given the players?

Hope for the best prepare for the worst... I would do what I think best for me and mine and not care too much about the national consequences if everybody did that .. fortunately cashing in a little gold or silver as needed to have operating cash doesn't really have a down side ... I have far more liquid and readily available assets than I have debt.. so I don't have "hard choices" to make... the worst it gets, the better off I am. Made money big time in the 2008 crash.. set up to cash in this time too.

Hmmm don't forget the $10,000 limit on cash withdrawals .. you don't need DHS and IRS investigating you :)
 
#14 ·
I sent two super pails of flour to my sisters church , and ate a can of my spam after thinking things would look pretty good with Trump in office . Now it look,s like the past administration left a shadow government in place to take him down , the dollar might crash , and I'm short a can of spam .
 
#15 · (Edited)
shadow government :eek:rnik: take away the cell phone, ban him from Twitter, and you save the nation

It's not a shadow government, at worst it is long term bureaucrats that know how things are supposed to be done asking a bunch of neophytes to cross their I's and dot their T's .. you got to fill out the forms properly, touch all the bases, and get all three branches of government to agree to the degree required by the Constitution.

And budgetaryily ( invented a word there) speaking he is walking into a debt ceiling trap of his own making. They say Obama would have been much better off if he had focused on jobs than health care , but he promised and he didn't pivot and while keeping everything from collapsing worse than it was, didn't address the bigger problem until too late with too little and after he spent all his poltical capital .. And now we have Trump , IMHO, the debt is the bigger problem, but Trump promised jobs and it doesn't look like he can pivot and here we have debt ceiling hard deadline with a hard limit. It was not secret, it was a public law passed by congress signed by the president. It puts an absolute kabaash on any government spending to create jobs and stimulate the economy UNLESS Congress makes a new debt ceiling law , either increasing the debt ceiling enough to cover everything including the promises or just do away with the debt ceiling all together .. either is completely doable... we will have to pay the ferryman at some point .. but it can be later, in the next administration's term .. or at least until it gets so ridiculously big ( might already be there, but who am I to say)

Just deal with the reality before you and abide by the Constitution and the Oath of Office and you will be fine Mr. President. You signed up for and volunteered for everything to be your fault or to your credit..nobody is out to get you but honest folks who disagree with you on policy and maybe are a little amused ( schadenfreude ) at your struggle with the learning curve. And this whole "Russian Thing" if any of that is true, you deserve what you get on that score IMHO

As for the promises .. Alligator twitter overloaded your Hummingbird butt.. happens every election to everybody.

To prevent any confusion I am calling liberals "snowflakes" when they whine feel picked on, and conservatives " soft as a downy chick" when they do the same.

Sorry for the political comments but IMHO this is where political comments belong.. on forums and twitter facebook and screaming at the TV, anywhere except where hardnosed economical policy is being worked out ... but I fear the rules of the forum and the atmosphere in Washington will enforce the exact opposite.
 
#19 · (Edited)
To clarify.. that was said in the context of the debt ceiling... until we reach the debt ceiling we can also borrow up to the amount authorized by the debt ceiling .

I posted this a few posts back , I'll post it again for those that missed it .. it gives total taxes and total spending as well as breaking both down into it's major categories https://www.nationalpriorities.org/campaigns/federal-budget-101/?gclid=CMasgtTFwtICFYUjgQod6OsJUA

I also posted this earlier http://www.usdebtclock.org/ which is an up to the minute running total of both spending and tax collection both gross totals and gross collections plus broken down into sectors and the current debt levels and how much each citizen owes .. it also has real time links to your State and the world as a whole.

I will not eat and post at the same time
I will not eat and post at the same time
I will not eat.... spilled a whole box of fresh typos all over the page
 
#18 ·
All this drama, for what?

How many times have we been through a debt ceiling fight? A bunch.

How many times has the debt ceiling been raised? Every single time.

Why is this fight any different? It's not.

Is it because Trump is in office? Well, Ammosgt HATEs Trump, so, in her mind, this time IS different.

Will there be drama, hate and discontent, finger pointing on both sides in the coming months - just like the last times? Yes.

The ceiling will be raised, it'll be business as usual - until we hit it again. Then, it'll start over again.
 
#20 ·
Ammo...read every word....feel the same....on the edge thinking....not enough info yet to decide?

Forgot the 10,000 thing! May be pull 9,500 one week the rest next few days the balance !
Got no bills ...no debt .... No credit cards just utilities ...food, gas...
 
#24 ·
Outside Your Normal Pattern

I forget the exact words, but banks are also required to notify if you start withdrawing outside of your normal patterns. Something that is not clearly defined, and can be interpreted any way the Feds choose to on that particular day. I assume that also means if you start taking out to much money in random non-patterns, you are suspicious (and and NOT been found guilty) and may seize your account.

The Feds have seized bank accounts from small businesses who do business mostly in cash. The businesses can sue, but .....

Just look at "Civil Forfeiture". "...sometimes called civil judicial forfeiture or occasionally civil seizure, is a controversial legal process in which law enforcement officers take assets from persons suspected of involvement with crime or illegal activity without necessarily charging the owners with wrongdoing."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_forfeiture_in_the_United_States

No more soapbox.
 
#22 ·
"And budgetaryily ( invented a word there) speaking he is walking into a debt ceiling trap of his own making. They say Obama would have been much better off if he had focused on jobs than health care , but he promised and he didn't pivot and while keeping everything from collapsing worse than it was, didn't address the bigger problem until too late with too little and after he spent all his poltical capital .. "

What BS! As is this whole thread. Usually you make sense, but you've gone off the deep end putting this on trump!
 
#27 ·
LOL .. no, it's real enough.. saw Ryan get asked about it yesterday .. according to him everything is fine, they have a couple few months of juggling some numbers and payments before they run out run out .. and like I said.. a simple vote the raise the limit would maintain the status quo ... Ryan was asked if it would be a " clean " vote to just raise the debt ceiling .. he said that that had never been done.. somebody has always wanted something like a dollar cut from the budget for each dollar the debt ceiling is raised .. Trump's budget has been released , you may have heard the howls and screams about the cuts that have started, and even with those cuts it is still more than we bring in in taxes.. so more cuts will have to be made or the debt limit raised .. next up will be Trump's tax reform .. that will have the debt ceiling sitting on that as well ...

I don't see anything that indicates a smooth anything to dealing with the debt ceiling ..

All that happened so far is the 20 Trillion cap on the debt is now in force .. we are at http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 19,919,000,000,000 or there bouts when you read this ... roughly 81 billion shy of the hard limit .. we have a burn rate without juggling of roughly 75 billion a month.

If they pass a balanced budget that is completely covered and paid for by tax reform we could go on forever without a hiccup.. or if they raised the limit ... I don't see that happening the easy way in either case .. I see a fight, and I see them creating public pressure by stopping all sorts of payments and closing down all sorts of government services , offices , national parks ... until we come up on the truly disastrous stuff like defaulting on US Bonds and Treasury payments .. last time they held out until our credit rating took a ding , federal workers were put on furlough or forced vacations, and contractors weren't getting paid, parks including the WW2 memorial were closed and the government was shut down .. and that was when both sides were playing by the conventional and understood rules of politics, with just some minor wrenches thrown into the gears by the Freedom Caucus. The danger comes from not having any guarantees that they will find enough reasonable people to puzzle anything out ....

I am alarmed because I can find no reason to believe that they will find any reasonable accommodation before the hard realities of "Bills come due" hits and what gets shut down is removed from the governments control ... or how long it stays that way.
 
#28 ·
Today on the healthcare bill is just about exactly what I fear when they get to the debt ceiling and for exactly the same reasons.
 
#29 ·
Yes...

If the "speaker of the house" puts a few "bandaids" on a failed piece of "legislation" and then renames it, hopefully those members of "congress" that refused to vote for the "American Health Care Act", will again support the wishes of the electorate, rather than support "legislation" that will move the USA closer to bankruptcy.
 
#31 ·
Yes unbekannt, that's nice... but it doesn't address the point , it recognizes the point.. it just doesn't address it... by law the borrowing has to be authorized .. currently the government can borrow or print or whatever you want to call it.. issue bonds or treasuries up to 20 Trillion.. once we hit 20 Trillion we can't borrow another penny even to save a life .. If or when we hit the 20 Trillion dollar debt limit the government can not borrow any more money.. it has to live on what taxes bring in. Currently we are borrowing about half a trillion or so a year.. and we are due to hit the limit soon weeks to couple months mid sept at the latest.

Once we hit it spending stops .. no bills paid no SS checks no military pay no government worker pay no disability no electrical or heating bills for government building no contractors get paid ... without new legislation from the house. The same basic group of conservative republicans that wouldn't vote for what I heard one describe ( actually my Congressman Mo Brooks ) as the "largest Republican welfare program in history" , aka Trump/RyanCare , are diametrically opposed to raising the debt ceiling and I doubt the democrats will help any more than they did this time.. I could be wrong, they like spending other peoples money, but I think they would rather watch the Republicans squirm and be unable to fund any of Trump's grand plans to make America Great Again, the pipeline , the wall, the infrastructure, the military fully funded aka expansion. At any rate and even if the democrats participate , actually especially if they participate .. deals will have to be done .. in the past, stuff like the sequester was part of deal to raise the debt ceiling a dollar spending cut for a dollar debt ceiling raised, prohibitions or prioritizing on what money can be spent on .. the possibilities are literally endless and the fights over partisanship, or for the soul of the Republican Party, and for each dollar the debt ceiling will be significantly raised, if any at all, will significantly interrupt the normal functions of government and the normal government payments of obligations .. so if your business is expecting a government check for work done or a social security check or a government pay check or a military pay check you might not get it on time.. you might not get it for some time..

That much of a reduction of cash flow into the economy will have downstream effects, less consumer spending folks who can't pay bills or mortgages or rent or car payments

So since we are here to plan for the worst and hope for the best... just incase they treat the debt ceiling like the healthcare bill .. with the exception that with the debt ceiling they can't just throw up their hands and pretend they didn't make a promise and walk away from the problem ..

Might be a good idea to kind of throttle back on spending for a bit and build up a little cash reserve to cover essentials for a couple of months, if any part of your income or business is expecting money from the government, or money from people who are expecting money from the government. Business might be slow for a while.

On the other hand, 435 adults might put their big boy panties on and man up and do the work of the people in a timely and efficient manner.... and no ( stop laughing) that is not a conspiracy theory.
 
#35 ·
I routinely point out we could do away with most of Medicare and Social Security by simply making adult children responsible for the welfare of their parents the same way their parents were and are legally responsible for their children's welfare .. sort of pay back by the adults children to their parents for all the time and sacrifice their parents did raising them.

I would think eventually the debt ceiling will be raised, but by how much and how long will it take... and with what conditions and trade offs ... by all that was right and Holy, with majorities in the House and Senate and controlling the Presidency and with 65 successful votes to repeal Obamacare stop only by Obama's veto... this most recent attempt to repeal ( and replace) didn't go as planned. The same kind of divisions in the Republican party for the same reasons and a few more and a President promising several major spending programs Infrastructure , the Wall, deportations, increasing the military budget during his campaign just like he promised medical care for everybody and at a lower cost .. I think it is reasonable to be at least apprehensive that the debt ceiling vote, especially with the timing of Tax reform next on the agenda to further complicate things may not go smoothly and that it may impact mainstreet..

You said nothing bad had ever happened before.. you forget,, among other things, our National Credit Rating got downgraded and that impacted the cost of loans and mortgages and the availability of credit and that impacted jobs. An amazing number of folks live paycheck to paycheck and need the paycheck on time and need the job .. shutting down the government, budget cuts, some interference or inability to cut taxes as planed would all be very bad on the stock market recently at all time highs because they were baking in those tax cuts and reduced spending , either first order direct reduced government spending of second order reduced payrolls will cost jobs and cutting taxes , even with reduced spending doesn't mean reduced deficits .. it could mean larger deficits if taxes are cut more than spending .. especially if taxes are cut and spending for infrastructure et al is increased ... I just think things are ripe for a prolonged fight.. and a government shutdown and delayed checks, including income tax returns.

You are right about we can't do much about what the government does in this matter or how we handle it... we can't do much about tornadoes happening... but we can make sensible preps for a short term economic disruption ( hopefully it won't trigger anything more long term .. the markets are a bit fragile at the moment.. the recent failure to repeal Obamacare and the lack of unity in the Majority party was a bit of a shock to the markets with the DJIA down about 300 points ( 1.5% ) just this week .. the dollar is down under 100 for the first time since the election itself... good for gold and silver :)

Yeah, they will probably raise the debt ceiling, they basically have to.. it's how, and in exchange for what, is the possible problem, as well as what boosting the economy and putting folks back to work that won't happen because of how and how much they end up raising the debt ceiling.
 
#36 ·
I routinely point out we could do away with most of Medicare and Social Security by simply making adult children responsible for the welfare of their parents the same way their parents were and are legally responsible for their children's welfare .. sort of pay back by the adults children to their parents for all the time and sacrifice their parents did raising them.
Yeah...

I would think eventually the debt ceiling will be raised, but by how much and how long will it take... and with what conditions and trade offs ...
It really doesn't matter anymore and hasn't for a long time.

by all that was right and Holy, with majorities in the House and Senate and controlling the Presidency and with 65 successful votes to repeal Obamacare stop only by Obama's veto... this most recent attempt to repeal ( and replace) didn't go as planned. The same kind of divisions in the Republican party for the same reasons and a few more and a President promising several major spending programs Infrastructure , the Wall, deportations, increasing the military budget during his campaign just like he promised medical care for everybody and at a lower cost .. I think it is reasonable to be at least apprehensive that the debt ceiling vote, especially with the timing of Tax reform next on the agenda to further complicate things may not go smoothly and that it may impact mainstreet..
Being apprehensive, being worried, about something that's completely out of my control does, what, exactly?

You said nothing bad had ever happened before..
No, what I said was that nothing really happened. Stop trying to twist what I said.

you forget,,
I didn't forget anything.

among other things, our National Credit Rating got downgraded
Given the debt and the deficit spending it should've been downgraded. That's a good thing.

and that impacted the cost of loans and mortgages and the availability of credit and that impacted jobs.
Not really. Government legislation has more to impact the costs involved with banking than a temporary downgrade.

An amazing number of folks live paycheck to paycheck and need the paycheck on time and need the job .. shutting down the government, budget cuts, some interference or inability to cut taxes as planed would all be very bad on the stock market recently at all time highs because they were baking in those tax cuts and reduced spending , either first order direct reduced government spending of second order reduced payrolls will cost jobs and cutting taxes , even with reduced spending doesn't mean reduced deficits .. it could mean larger deficits if taxes are cut more than spending .. especially if taxes are cut and spending for infrastructure et al is increased ...
When the .gov shut down in 1995-96 and 2013 did any of your doom and doom predictions come true? No. Is this any different? No.

I just think things are ripe for a prolonged fight.. and a government shutdown and delayed checks, including income tax returns.
So.

You are right about we can't do much about what the government does in this matter or how we handle it... we can't do much about tornadoes happening... but we can make sensible preps for a short term economic disruption ( hopefully it won't trigger anything more long term .. the markets are a bit fragile at the moment..
The market is going to correct itself at some point. It always does. What are you going to blame it on, Trump?

the recent failure to repeal Obamacare and the lack of unity in the Majority party was a bit of a shock to the markets with the DJIA down about 300 points ( 1.5% ) just this week .. the dollar is down under 100 for the first time since the election itself...
Everything fluctuates.

good for gold and silver :)
So you stand to profit. Good for you.

Yeah, they will probably raise the debt ceiling, they basically have to..
Not probably, they will.

it's how, and in exchange for what, is the possible problem, as well as what boosting the economy and putting folks back to work that won't happen because of how and how much they end up raising the debt ceiling.
Worry all you want. Hope for a self-fulfilling prophecy. I and millions of others will carry on like we always do.

I'm a survivor of the numerous debt ceiling showdowns, government shutdowns, and end of the world predations. This is no different.
 
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