There is no shortage of M39: don't buy junkers - Page 2
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Thread: There is no shortage of M39: don't buy junkers

  1. #46
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    The last big batch of M39s that left the PSV storage was in 2007. There was a few hundred more that went to dealers in 2008 but these were not proofed at Rihiimäki

  2. #47
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    The CIP proof is basically needed that the police can tell it's a 7.62x53R rifle. You see, in Finland there is practice that when non-collector buys a gun police needs to inspect it so that it really is like you told them you were going to buy. However, with their normal expertise they simply cannot tell the caliber if it's not stamped to the barrel. That should say something.

    Not all Finnish Mosin-Nagants are CIP approved though. Only those sold for non-collectors by the gov't after mid-1980s-something were cipped. Collectibles aren't cipped as that ruins their value.

  3. #48
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    I don't know how many times I've heard it's the last of them and there will be no more ever. Dealers were touting that up to 20 years ago. Back in the later 1990's Century Arms had them on sale at 3 for $ 99.00. I had a little extra money so I bought 100 of them. They were all types. Early Straight Stocks with lower 200,000 serial numbers, some SKY ones, and various assorted MFG's. Thoughout the years I sold most of them off, the majority at less than $ 200. I never thought they would be selling for what they are now or I would have hung onto them. They also had a good sale on Russian 1980's era 7.62 X 54R 440 round tins for $ 35.00. Got a bunch of that too. The old days were here again but gone now. I guess.

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  5. #49
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    You can't compare old prices without indexing them to the incomes. What was 99$ 20 years ago in today's money ?

  6. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by upnorth69 View Post
    You can't compare old prices without indexing them to the incomes. What was 99$ 20 years ago in today's money ?
    $151.11

  7. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krieger82 View Post
    $151.11
    That's true using the government infkation calculator here:

    http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

    BUT....

    This is not real inflation, it's based on core inflation and CPI, which excludes volatiles like food and gas. So the cummulative inflation is a little higher than the stated 51.9%.

    But not so inflated that $99 doubles or even tripples in the last 20 years.

  8. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by upnorth69 View Post
    You can't compare old prices without indexing them to the incomes. What was 99$ 20 years ago in today's money ?
    There's no way to compare these prices without taking many other factors into consideration none of which has anything to do with Government figures. If you want to see some prices that will knock your eyes out you should see the 1960's. I have almost every issues of The American Rifleman from the 1960's bound in Leather in order by year. Sometimes we wonder where all the Mint guns come from and how much they cost. Well, I got some of that info. Those were the days when one could purchase a 57 MM Recoiless Rifle or Lahti Anti Tank gun and have them delivered to your home no questions asked. A lot of the brand new C&R Guns and Bayonets came into this country at bargain basement prices.

  9. #53
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    If you use real GDP deflator, it rises to about 175. Also, alternatively, unadjusted for inflation the ROI on an m39, assuming cracked stock price of 350, is 6.52 percent. Given that decent m39s are going for around 600 for some perplexing reason (increased demand brought on by the classic machine perhaps) that boosts ROI to 9.43. Oddly enough this is virtually identical to the S&P 500 for this dame time period.....which us actually quite an anomally in the gun collecting world.

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  10. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krieger82 View Post
    If you use real GDP deflator, it rises to about 175.

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    The reality is that this is all about supply and demand.

    Today there are more serious military rifle collectors than there ever were back in the day. In the 1980's and earlier, most milsurp buyers were paying for a cheap alternative to a Winchester or Remington hunting rifle and in many cases "lovingly" sporterized their acquisitions.

    Fast forward to today. Military Surplus rifles are available in lesser quantities from dealers, but interest is much higher. Despite general feelings to the contrary, there is a growing number of baby boomers and Gen-Xers who now finally have a little extra coin to indulge their collecting urges. That isn't to say the economy is better for everyone - it's not - but it's good enough for people with their debt under control to buy these luxury items.

    Supply is down, demand is up = these guns are performing better than any financial institution investments I have.

  11. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claven2 View Post
    The reality is that this is all about supply and demand.

    Today there are more serious military rifle collectors than there ever were back in the day. In the 1980's and earlier, most milsurp buyers were paying for a cheap alternative to a Winchester or Remington hunting rifle and in many cases "lovingly" sporterized their acquisitions.

    Fast forward to today. Military Surplus rifles are available in lesser quantities from dealers, but interest is much higher. Despite general feelings to the contrary, there is a growing number of baby boomers and Gen-Xers who now finally have a little extra coin to indulge their collecting urges. That isn't to say the economy is better for everyone - it's not - but it's good enough for people with their debt under control to buy these luxury items.

    Supply is down, demand is up = these guns are performing better than any financial institution investments I have.
    Its actually quite an interesting phenomenon. I have been studying it for quite some time. The AROR of collectible firearms is on the whole quite low. To the tune of 1-3% on average. In terms of market cycles it seems mosins, especially finns are experienceing a surge far in excess of other more traditionally desireable collectibles (i.e. mausers have been relatively stagnant and leveled off, or reached equilibrium in market terms). There are tons of other mechanics going on that I would love to droll on about, but I will spare everyone. Also, sounds like you need a new financial guy

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  12. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krieger82 View Post
    Its actually quite an interesting phenomenon. I have been studying it for quite some time. The AROR of collectible firearms is on the whole quite low. To the tune of 1-3% on average. In terms of market cycles it seems mosins, especially finns are experienceing a surge far in excess of other more traditionally desireable collectibles (i.e. mausers have been relatively stagnant and leveled off, or reached equilibrium in market terms). There are tons of other mechanics going on that I would love to droll on about, but I will spare everyone. Also, sounds like you need a new financial guy
    Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
    Swedish Mausers are also rising in selling prices. I suspect however this is because Joe Sixpack has heard of 6.5 Creedmoor and can't tell the difference from 6.5X55.

  13. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krieger82 View Post
    Its actually quite an interesting phenomenon. I have been studying it for quite some time. The AROR of collectible firearms is on the whole quite low. To the tune of 1-3% on average. In terms of market cycles it seems mosins, especially finns are experienceing a surge far in excess of other more traditionally desireable collectibles (i.e. mausers have been relatively stagnant and leveled off, or reached equilibrium in market terms). There are tons of other mechanics going on that I would love to droll on about, but I will spare everyone. Also, sounds like you need a new financial guy

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    I rather doubt that.

    Here in Canada, Longbranch No.4 rifles in nice shape have gone from $250 7 or 8 years ago to $1200 each (!). M39's have gone from $500 10 years ago to $1000. M38's and M44's have gone from $75-$125 5 years ago to $400+.

    Garands in decent shape were selling for $199 about 10 years ago. Now they are selling in the $1700 range.

    Not too many of my mutuals have performed as well... actually none of them have.

  14. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claven2 View Post
    I rather doubt that.

    Here in Canada, Longbranch No.4 rifles in nice shape have gone from $250 7 or 8 years ago to $1200 each (!). M39's have gone from $500 10 years ago to $1000. M38's and M44's have gone from $75-$125 5 years ago to $400+.

    Garands in decent shape were selling for $199 about 10 years ago. Now they are selling in the $1700 range.

    Not too many of my mutuals have performed as well... actually none of them have.
    WOW! Those are high prices. Hard to begin collecting up there!
    Looking for WWI,WWII, and older militaria. If you are going to sell please let me know!

  15. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by quark View Post
    WOW! Those are high prices. Hard to begin collecting up there!
    Great for people that bought them and want to sell but bad for getting beginners interested in the hobby or even those wishing to add to their collection.
    Gary

  16. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claven2 View Post
    I rather doubt that.

    Here in Canada, Longbranch No.4 rifles in nice shape have gone from $250 7 or 8 years ago to $1200 each (!). M39's have gone from $500 10 years ago to $1000. M38's and M44's have gone from $75-$125 5 years ago to $400+.

    Garands in decent shape were selling for $199 about 10 years ago. Now they are selling in the $1700 range.

    Not too many of my mutuals have performed as well... actually none of them have.
    My data set excludes the canadian market....thats a whole other ball of wax....rough goings up there


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  17. #61
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    Along the same lines, all of my Mosins, have stamped matching numbers, which I always felt was important. I have sold off all of the non matching or electro. pencil models. When I look at all of these Classic videos I never see matching discussed either way. I have been tempted to order from them before, but was wary of the numbers matching. In general are most of the M39s matching they have sold, or not? Is my preoccupation with matching numbers still wise? Thanks.........

  18. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by panfish2010 View Post
    Along the same lines, all of my Mosins, have stamped matching numbers, which I always felt was important. I have sold off all of the non matching or electro. pencil models. When I look at all of these Classic videos I never see matching discussed either way. I have been tempted to order from them before, but was wary of the numbers matching. In general are most of the M39s matching they have sold, or not? Is my preoccupation with matching numbers still wise? Thanks.........
    Perhaps if this were 2030, you'd have to settle for non matching numbers but today, you can still find fine rifles for sale with matching numbers...so your focus is correct and wise to consider matching numbers as a priority / deal breaker. M39 values will continue to go up but matching M39 rifles will always be what collectors demand and that will never change. Just look at recent commercial sales of sewer pipe bore , unmatching number M39's with cracked stocks this past year...they all sold out fast as buyers wanted to "get one while they could"...they bought any M39 in reality.

    Condition is everything...and matching numbers is a big part of that. Buy matching number M39 , they are out there still to be had, just hunt and be patient.

  19. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krieger82 View Post
    My data set excludes the canadian market....thats a whole other ball of wax....rough goings up there

    Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
    Claven2's comments reflect the fact that, in Canada, there are two distinct groups out there- those that are trying to cash in on the increased interest in collecting following the abandonment of the Federal long Gun Registry and those that are simply trying to start a collection. As a financial exercise any Canadian "investor" has to factor in the possibility of the Liberal Govt imposing another punitive regulatory scheme and collapsing the demand again. As far as new collectors being willing to suck up and pay ridiculously high prices- even expensive milsurps aren't really that expensive compared to other things people buy for fun. That guy that pays $1800 for a recently assembled mixmaster Garand may never buy another milsurp. M39's are in good supply up here and many are sitting on vendors websites. Strangely!!!!, I bought one cheap, before the supply improved. For investing, I think I'll stick to proper financial instruments.

    Ruprecht

  20. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claven2 View Post
    In the 1980's and earlier, most milsurp buyers were paying for a cheap alternative to a Winchester or Remington hunting rifle and in many cases "lovingly" sporterized their acquisitions.
    Oh, so you've met my brother-in-law, then?

    Unfortunately, it didn't stop with the Eighties.

  21. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by NY50/70 View Post
    Great for people that bought them and want to sell but bad for getting beginners interested in the hobby or even those wishing to add to their collection.
    Gary
    Not to worry. Be patient. There are imesurable scores of these rifles crated and stored away in salt and feldspar mines waiting to see the light of day. Rumor has it there is a shipment sitting in NY harbor waiting to come ashore. I for one don't put much stock in rumor, but I do remain hopeful.

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