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Thread: Any rich guys win this?

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pointyears View Post
    Uncle Pahtu, is that you? After all these years??
    You will have to change my diapers & cook for me....and....take me to the local fair and buy me a foot long corn dog on a stick and hit up the bingo tent.....for years....first....

    Pahtu.
    Last edited by Pahtu; 06-13-2017 at 07:36 PM.

  2. #47
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    This thread shows why M/39s and many other Milsurps will not continue to increase in value. There are going to soon be more sellers than buyers. Sellers who paid $100 a rifle on average and have a hundred rifles to sell will not be able to maintain sales of a $1,000 a rifle. You need 10x the amount of buyers in order to do so. There are too many boomers with too large collections and not enough Gen X. Millenials are looking at WWI items. Those selling now will benefit the most. Those selling later will have to lower their prices or watch them sit unsold as they have to compete with all the others selling.

    Already I see a pull back in M/39 prices. Classics's this is the last of them sales technique is getting old. Burns is still selling at the same pace. People are realizing there is nothing rare about a M/39. There are 10,000 Sky alone. Regular VKT and SAKO are selling for 100€ in Finland. Once the first fake Tikka's are verified the prices on them will drop like a lead balloon. The rarest and best of the best will always command high prices. The rest will drop when the bubble pops.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by capt14k View Post
    This thread shows why M/39s and many other Milsurps will not continue to increase in value. There are going to soon be more sellers than buyers. Sellers who paid $100 a rifle on average and have a hundred rifles to sell will not be able to maintain sales of a $1,000 a rifle. You need 10x the amount of buyers in order to do so. There are too many boomers with too large collections and not enough Gen X. Millenials are looking at WWI items. Those selling now will benefit the most. Those selling later will have to lower their prices or watch them sit unsold as they have to compete with all the others selling.

    Already I see a pull back in M/39 prices. Classics's this is the last of them sales technique is getting old. Burns is still selling at the same pace. People are realizing there is nothing rare about a M/39. There are 10,000 Sky alone. Regular VKT and SAKO are selling for 100€ in Finland. Once the first fake Tikka's are verified the prices on them will drop like a lead balloon. The rarest and best of the best will always command high prices. The rest will drop when the bubble pops.
    I hope you are right as I still hope to accumulate more M39s, but realistically I think you are wrong

    I don't know the US market well, but here in Canada they are rare. There are only a few hundred M39's in the whole country. The US market is massive and a LOT of ppl collect mosins. Even the young guys - they all start with a cheap refurb 91/30 and the interest grows from there.

    A Tikka M39 is near the top of the pile for non-sniper mosin pricing, but nevertheless there will always be people willing to pay to fill that hole in their collection IMHO.

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  5. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claven2 View Post
    I hope you are right as I still hope to accumulate more M39s, but realistically I think you are wrong

    I don't know the US market well, but here in Canada they are rare. There are only a few hundred M39's in the whole country. The US market is massive and a LOT of ppl collect mosins. Even the young guys - they all start with a cheap refurb 91/30 and the interest grows from there.

    A Tikka M39 is near the top of the pile for non-sniper mosin pricing, but nevertheless there will always be people willing to pay to fill that hole in their collection IMHO.
    I agree the rarest items will always hold their value. Look at Honus Wagner T206 baseball card vs card collecting in general.

    There are plenty of M/39 in the States. Burns alone brought in 14,000+.

    Tikkas and even worse no date no maker are too easy to fake. Fake SA Stamps have been around for awhile. The same Polish seller selling the fake SA and fake German Stamps has fake Tikka stamps now too. Do you think this is by accident?

    The lack of vetting in the Finn Mosin Community will help lead the drop in prices. The K98k guys knew they had to admit to the fakes and work hard at outing them. Finn Collectors don't even want to admit to fake SA Stamps. How long will it take to admit to fake Tikka Stamps?

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  6. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by capt14k View Post
    I agree the rarest items will always hold their value. Look at Honus Wagner T206 baseball card vs card collecting in general.

    There are plenty of M/39 in the States. Burns alone brought in 14,000+.

    Tikkas and even worse no date no maker are too easy to fake. Fake SA Stamps have been around for awhile. The same Polish seller selling the fake SA and fake German Stamps has fake Tikka stamps now too. Do you think this is by accident?

    The lack of vetting in the Finn Mosin Community will help lead the drop in prices. The K98k guys knew they had to admit to the fakes and work hard at outing them. Finn Collectors don't even want to admit to fake SA Stamps. How long will it take to admit to fake Tikka Stamps?

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    Yes, a fake Tikka can be made, but it would require a nice M39 to be scrubbed, likely on a lathe, and new markings applied. Plus, you would have to accurately fake the year stamp, which is unique to Tikkakoski, and you would also have to fake the tikka serial number font.

    It's far more likely, though I suspect it's not happening, to convert an existing M91 or M30 tikka into an M39 - but the cost of doing the conversion, the gunsmithing, buying enough M39 parts, re-bluing everything, etc. would chew up any profit that's to be had. A nice M39 stock alone is a $200+ item by itself, all the other parts would add up quickly.

    My personal view is that a tikka M39 would need to sell for more than $1200 for it to be worthwhile to make a fake that would fool anyone who has seen a real one - even in pictures.

    Especially if a nice Tikka M91 or M30 is a $400-700 gun before you even start messing with it.

  7. #51
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    I would say $1,000 would be worth it maybe even less for some of this scum. The one in OP sold for $1,525 which is where they have been selling as of late. They are prime for fakery. Rarely is refinishing even talked about amongst Finns since so many of them went through refurbishment whether at the Arsenal or the Importer. Unless there is more vetting it will be a humper's paradise at the current prices.

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  8. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by capt14k View Post
    I would say $1,000 would be worth it maybe even less for some of this scum. The one in OP sold for $1,525 which is where they have been selling as of late. They are prime for fakery.

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    Truth be told, I think making a convincing tikka fake is about a lot more than an SA stamp and a tikka stamp. It's not impossible to fake this rifle, but making it look real would be very challenging IMHO. Much more so than by changing a K98k bolt serial number or re-adding a waffenampt.

    I also think most finns are not worth faking at the current prices. They are still mostly available and not astronomically priced, though I have seen a good many fake M39 sniper rifles already - but they were made of ream M39's, and sometimes even with real soviet scopes and mounts.

  9. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claven2 View Post
    Truth be told, I think making a convincing tikka fake is about a lot more than an SA stamp and a tikka stamp. It's not impossible to fake this rifle, but making it look real would be very challenging IMHO. Much more so than by changing a K98k bolt serial number or re-adding a waffenampt.
    I think it can be done and where there is a will there is a way. Did you see the SCW wz29 turned into a German Capture. Yes it was caught, but how many would have caught it at a gun show? What about the no maker no date M/39's.

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  10. #54
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    Damn...................and it wasn't even sold by..................Click image for larger version. 

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  11. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by capt14k View Post
    I think it can be done and where there is a will there is a way. Did you see the SCW wz29 turned into a German Capture. Yes it was caught, but how many would have caught it at a gun show? What about the no maker no date M/39's.

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    The no maker/date M39's would be far easier to duplicate than a tikka IMO. The No-maker dated rifles are harder, the date stamps are specific fonts that I haven't seen any fakers use yet.

  12. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claven2 View Post
    The no maker/date M39's would be far easier to duplicate than a tikka IMO. The No-maker dated rifles are harder, the date stamps are specific fonts that I haven't seen any fakers use yet.
    Yet is the key word.

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  13. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by capt14k View Post
    I think it can be done and where there is a will there is a way. Did you see the SCW wz29 turned into a German Capture. Yes it was caught, but how many would have caught it at a gun show? What about the no maker no date M/39's.
    I think at a gun show it would have easily been caught. The human eye has a bit more resolution than a cell phone camera, plus there can't be any tricks with lighting or angles.

    Re the no maker no date M39, think of a Romanian contract VZ-24. It's usually pretty obvious when all of the markings get scrubbed, even moreso if the rest of the metal is 50 years of different wear.

  14. #58
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    I agree about the fact that there are a lot of M39's out there but there are also a lot out of circulation in collectors safes. Most buyers at gun shows will just not pay the ridiculous prices dealers are asking at gun shows these days. There has been an M39 at all the Washington County Fairgrounds shows from last year at $749 and the dealer will not budge. So many people have asked me if I think it is worth it and the answer is no. No one will buy it at that price and he will either take it home and keep it for his own or eventually buckle to an offer. I talked with the dealer long ago and know why as he says he is heavy into it. This is usually the case and has been caused by Classics ridiculous prices on the internet. I really don't know or care if they are selling much at those prices as to me they are greatly inflated and not at all realistic to what people will actually buy at. Fakes Oh yeah they are out there and actually there are certain dealers who I just won't buy anything from because I know what they do routinely. Sometimes I spot them and sometimes I don't, but I solved that problem by not buying anything from them or anybody who I know deals with them.

    When you are at this hobby for a long time there are people you trust and others who you don't. Asking about people online will very often get you steered the wrong way so you have to learn to gauge things through you own eyes and experience. Try following this axiom and keep it always in mind, every seller has gold, every trader has junk while it is in his hands till it meets the new sellers hands. That won't tell you what is fake but it will give a slice of life to consider. Bill
    zeebill live from the hills of West Virginia!

  15. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pointyears View Post
    I think at a gun show it would have easily been caught. The human eye has a bit more resolution than a cell phone camera, plus there can't be any tricks with lighting or angles.

    Re the no maker no date M39, think of a Romanian contract VZ-24. It's usually pretty obvious when all of the markings get scrubbed, even moreso if the rest of the metal is 50 years of different wear.
    You are forgetting the hot crowded conditions. This was discussed on a forum where the thread was allowed and everyone agreed selling at show less likely to get caught.

    Refinishing a M39 is not hard to pull off. Your forgetting many M/39 do not have 70 year old bluing. Many were refinished right before surplus. Some were refinished here. Almost none are vetted. Think about how many have near perfect bluing. Well scrubbed, re-blued, brand new post war stock and the vast majority will say how great it looks.

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    You are forgetting the hot crowded conditions. This was discussed on a forum where the thread was allowed and everyone agreed selling at show less likely to get caught.
    Frankly, I don't care what "everyone agreed" to. In no world that I live in is a photo superior to my eyes. If you're saying a hump could be so good it couldn't be detected in either the photo or in person, that's a whole separate discussion because that's extremely likely. Nope, not buying this one.

    Your forgetting many M/39 do not have 70 year old bluing. Many were refinished right before surplus. Some were refinished here. Almost none are vetted. Think about how many have near perfect bluing. Well scrubbed, re-blued, brand new post war stock and the vast majority will say how great it looks.
    Yeah, and if bad guy scrubs all of the markings off of an M39 to make a no name/no date, you don't think a) that'd be noticeable and b) they'd be able to match? They'd need to start with a virginal M39 and trust me, there aren't that many around with perfect "from the factory" blueing. Anything less than 90% would stick out like a sore thumb.

  17. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pointyears View Post
    Frankly, I don't care what "everyone agreed" to. In no world that I live in is a photo superior to my eyes. If you're saying a hump could be so good it couldn't be detected in either the photo or in person, that's a whole separate discussion because that's extremely likely. Nope, not buying this one.



    Yeah, and if bad guy scrubs all of the markings off of an M39 to make a no name/no date, you don't think a) that'd be noticeable and b) they'd be able to match? They'd need to start with a virginal M39 and trust me, there aren't that many around with perfect "from the factory" blueing. Anything less than 90% would stick out like a sore thumb.
    Believe what you want. You have a lot more time to study pictures than at gun at a show.

    They re-blue the entire barrel and receiver not just the scrubbed area. Then they can chemically age It. Guaranteed it would get past most collectors.

    IIRC you didn't even know what was wrong with that wz29 yet you disrespected someone like Hambone who has more knowledge than you could ever hope for.

    Maybe you are just trying to get this thread closed too because the subject of fake Finns and fake SA Stamps has been brought up again. Whichever it is I've learned it's a lot easier just to change my settings to ignore.

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  18. #62
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    Can we get back on topic gents? The op rifle is not a fake. I'm really quite certain of that. If you want to discuss fakes, maybe start a new thread and let's stop the hijack?

    Pics of verified faking of m39's would be a good catalyst, if anyone has some.

  19. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claven2 View Post
    Can we get back on topic gents? The op rifle is not a fake. I'm really quite certain of that. If you want to discuss fakes, maybe start a new thread and let's stop the hijack?

    Pics of verified faking of m39's would be a good catalyst, if anyone has some.
    There's plenty out there. One of the yuku sites I believe has pics. I thought the topic was just regarding prices of Tikka M/39. OP didn't buy the rifle so fakes IMO are on topic. It is a subject that needs discussing if Finnish collectors hope to maintain the value of their collections.

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